AABC Europe 2015 - SESSTAM Symposium: Stationary Energy Storage System Technology, Application and Market - Session 1

Advanced Battery Market for Automotive and Stationary Applications

Session Chairman:

President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and founder of Total Battery Consulting, Inc., Dr. Anderman has led the development and commercialization of high-power Ni-Cd batteries, Li-Ion batteries, and ultracapacitors and spent the last ten years conducting assessments of energy-storage technologies for advanced vehicles, publishing Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports and chairing the AABC.

1. Market Acceptance of HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs in Europe, the US, and Japan
   Michael Lord, Senior Principal Engineer, Toyota Technical Center
   

   While the major OEMs are committed to the continued electrification of the passenger car fleet, the challenge remains with employing the appropriate measures necessary to facilitate market acceptance of this technology.  Toyota, with cumulative hybrid sales of over 7 million units and over 20 models worldwide, continues to dominate the HEV market.  PHEV/BEV market participation is more diverse than HEV, with over 40 models worldwide from various OEMs.  This presentation will compare and contrast the market uptake of these HEV, PHEV and BEV in Europe, the US and Japan and assess the underlying factors which may be affecting market penetration in these regions.  In particular, the review will encompass:

   1. Sales rates of HEV, PHEV and BEVs
      How do the 3 regions compare in sales of each technology?
   2. Market Differences within each region
      How do the sales of the different technologies compare within each of regions?
   3. Incentives/Infrastructure
      How have these impacted the market?
   4. Consumer motivation
      What is motivating consumers to purchase these types of vehicles?
   5. An OEM perspective
      Where are we going from here?
2. xEV-Batteries & Materials and BESS-Batteries & Materials in the Chinese Market
   Mark Lu, Certified Senior Industrial Analyst, Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK), Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
   

   In 2014, Chinese xEV sales grew by well over 300%. This growth in demand has constituted an equivalent growth in the demand for batteries. This huge increase has attracted overseas batteries manufacturers. However, as Chinese xEV OEMs use different materials and have different batteries specifications, it is necessary to understand the special needs of the market in order to enter it. In addition, the Chinese government is investing in BESS to ascertain whether it can seamlessly be integrated with renewable energy in order to create an efficient power supply. Thus, it can be predicted that the demand for stationary batteries has the potential to grow.

   Therefore, this presentation will focus on the following contents:

   1. Current Chinese xEV sales, leading OEMs and models in 2014
   2. The market scope of Chinese xEV batteries and materials by different segmentations
   3. Comparison between Chinese xEV batteries & materials and other leading xEV batteries makers
   4. Present Chinese BESS-related policies: Government-funded test projects
   5. The BESS batteries’ specifications and preferred materials already used in China
   6. Suggestions for overseas companies wishing to enter the Chinese market
3. Lithium-Ion Battery Market: Expansion Beyond Consumer and Automotive
   Christophe Pillot, Director, Avicenne Energy
   

   In 2014, consumer application and automotive account respectively for 60% and 25% of the total Li-ion battery market at the pack level (US$ 17 Billion). Other applications are mostly power tools (5%) and E-bikes (6%). Then, Energy storage systems, and industrial applications (stationary or motive) are mostly powered by lead acid batteries.

   We expect to see Li-ion to take market share Vs. lead acid in the next few years. Lead acid is still dominant, but Li-ion may capture market share in forklift market, automatic handling equipment but also, in certain circumstances UPS, telecom, back-up systems, medical devices, marine, etc... Lithium ion battery, thanks to better energy density, longer lifetime, higher discharge current and lower self-discharge try to compete with lead acid and penetrate those markets despite higher capital cost and safety concerns.

   In this presentation, we will detail 11 applications beyond consumer and automotive and give you realistic forecasts up to 2025 for Li-ion battery.

4. Tesla Motors, the Gigafactory, and their Impact on the xEV Industry
   Menahem Andeman, President, Advanced Automotive Batteries
   

   Tesla Motors and the success of its Model S EV in the market place have already broken many of the auto industry’s deeply-rooted convictions regarding EVs. Tesla’s ambitious goals of selling 500k EVs annually by 2020 (or thereabouts) shouldered by a low-cost battery made in Tesla’s own 35GWh factory is a subject of much discussion in the xEV industry and beyond. This presentation will provide insights into critical commercial and technical issues. We will discuss:

   1. Tesla’s sudden success and the position of major automakers
   2. Cell cost and the gigafactory
   3. Tesla’s impact on the EV/battery industry
   4. EV market  and EV battery market forecast to 2020
5. German Roadmap for Battery Technologies for ESS – R&D Trends and Market Development
   Axel Thielmann, Deputy Head of the Competence Center- Emerging Technologies, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
   

   The expansion of fluctuating renewable energy sources will lead to an increasing demand for energy storage solutions in the mid to long term future. Electrochemical storage, in particular Lithium-Ion Batteries as energy storage systems (ESS) have unique potentials to be used in a wide range of applications due to comparably high energy densities and efficiencies. Lithium-Ion Batteries are expected to be competitive with alternative technologies through improved lifetimes in combination with reduced costs and hence to conquer new markets in the future. Fraunhofer ISI has developed three parts of a battery roadmap on ESS from the perspective of German/ European battery experts from science and industries.

   • The technology roadmap identifies state of the art technologies by different storage size classes and charge/discharge times and projects the expected market entry of alternative energy storage technologies until 2030 based on the currently identified R&D trends.
   • The product roadmap identifies a number of applications and business cases while differentiating the markets on transmission and distribution grid level. The ESS technologies are considered as a black box.
   • The integrated roadmap identifies most probable scenarios for battery technologies to substitute existing technologies in selected applications and business cases (e.g. home solar, peak shaving) while considering the key performance parameters that might bring the breakthrough.